A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
